Setting description

Niraparib more effective in the DRD+ biomarker signature

Simulations setting

PFS distributions


Treatment effects

By subgroup:

subtype var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43


By signature:

signature var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.018, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 50.5, median = 41.2
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.29, hr = 0.72
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.018, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 50.5, median = 41.2
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.29, hr = 0.72
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.018, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 50.5, median = 41.2
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.29, hr = 0.72
DRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.018, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 50.5, median = 41.2
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.29, hr = 0.72

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 10 12 84
TP53- 18 33 95
TP53+ 25 21 105
DRD+ 9 8 434
TEfus+ 17 16 93
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.020 0.024 0.168
TP53- 0.036 0.066 0.190
TP53+ 0.050 0.042 0.210
DRD+ 0.018 0.016 0.868
TEfus+ 0.034 0.032 0.186
futility (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 31 45 1
TP53- 166 173 12
TP53+ 165 169 10
DRD+ 84 97 1
TEfus+ 136 136 9
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.062 0.090 0.002
TP53- 0.332 0.346 0.024
TP53+ 0.330 0.338 0.020
DRD+ 0.168 0.194 0.002
TEfus+ 0.272 0.272 0.018
max sample size (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0 0 0
TP53- 78 57 58
TP53+ 12 12 5
DRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.156 0.114 0.116
TP53+ 0.024 0.024 0.010
DRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.276.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.124             0.128             0.050

The overall power was 0.868.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.000             0.000             0.868

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all graduation 0 10 12 84
futility 0 31 45 1
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 713 (628, 766) 346 (182, 492) 331 (164, 480) 326 (173, 482)
n_unique 713 (628, 766) 346 (182, 492) 331 (164, 480) 326 (173, 482)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (54, 60) 60 (36, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 29 (16, 54) 24 (8, 56) 33 (12, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.5 (0.09, 0.91) 0.5 (0.1, 0.9) 1 (0.94, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.02, 0.022) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.016 (0.015, 0.018)
TP53- graduation 0 18 33 95
futility 0 166 173 12
max_n 0 78 57 58
n 391 (339, 435) 193 (63, 303) 169 (59, 301) 176 (74, 300)
n_unique 391 (339, 435) 193 (63, 303) 169 (59, 301) 176 (74, 300)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (23, 60) 60 (23, 60) 60 (30, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 28 (17, 52) 32 (18, 52) 32 (17, 50)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.07, 0.9) 0.49 (0.08, 0.9) 0.98 (0.84, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.021 (0.018, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.016 (0.013, 0.019)
TP53+ graduation 0 25 21 105
futility 0 165 169 10
max_n 0 12 12 5
n 323 (280, 358) 144 (57, 250) 154 (56, 253) 140 (68, 227)
n_unique 323 (280, 358) 144 (57, 250) 154 (56, 253) 140 (68, 227)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (27, 60) 60 (23, 60) 60 (31, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 33 (21, 52) 30 (17, 50) 34 (18, 55)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.47 (0.09, 0.89) 0.47 (0.11, 0.88) 0.97 (0.67, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.021 (0.018, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.017 (0.014, 0.02)
DRD+ graduation 0 9 8 434
futility 0 84 97 1
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 191 (147, 223) 75 (38, 132) 70 (34, 129) 99 (55, 156)
n_unique 191 (147, 223) 75 (38, 132) 70 (34, 129) 99 (55, 156)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (45, 60) 60 (44, 60) 37 (21, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 45 (32, 57) 44 (32, 55) 34 (20, 51)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.1, 0.84) 0.47 (0.12, 0.88) 1 (1, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.021 (0.017, 0.027) 0.021 (0.017, 0.027) 0.01 (0.008, 0.012)
TEfus+ graduation 0 17 16 93
futility 0 136 136 9
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 258 (209, 292) 117 (52, 190) 112 (51, 197) 116 (58, 190)
n_unique 258 (209, 292) 117 (52, 190) 112 (51, 197) 116 (58, 190)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (31, 60) 60 (29, 60) 60 (34, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 36 (24, 55) 34 (23, 50) 34 (19, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.47 (0.1, 0.9) 0.46 (0.1, 0.88) 0.98 (0.84, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.021 (0.017, 0.026) 0.022 (0.018, 0.026) 0.015 (0.012, 0.018)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— graduation 0 194 230 151
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 78 57 56
n 218 (179, 252) 106 (32, 200) 88 (25, 190) 81 (25, 187)
n_unique 218 (179, 252) 106 (32, 200) 88 (25, 190) 81 (25, 187)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.5 (0.09, 0.91) 0.48 (0.08, 0.87) 0.47 (0.1, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.022 (0.018, 0.028) 0.022 (0.018, 0.029) 0.021 (0.017, 0.027)
–+ graduation 0 270 295 198
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 73 56 53
n 64 (45, 79) 28 (8, 59) 27 (10, 62) 22 (6, 54)
n_unique 64 (45, 79) 28 (8, 59) 27 (10, 62) 22 (6, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.13, 0.86) 0.5 (0.13, 0.88) 0.46 (0.11, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.026) 0.022 (0.015, 0.035) 0.022 (0.016, 0.033) 0.022 (0.015, 0.035)
-+- graduation 0 207 217 165
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 12 12 5
n 141 (111, 159) 56 (19, 128) 58 (21, 139) 50 (14, 117)
n_unique 141 (111, 159) 56 (19, 128) 58 (21, 139) 50 (14, 117)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.49 (0.11, 0.87) 0.47 (0.1, 0.89) 0.5 (0.09, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.025) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.022 (0.018, 0.03) 0.022 (0.017, 0.031)
-++ graduation 0 283 289 214
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 12 11 5
n 103 (75, 121) 36 (12, 93) 38 (15, 97) 38 (12, 88)
n_unique 103 (75, 121) 36 (12, 93) 38 (15, 97) 38 (12, 88)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.12, 0.85) 0.46 (0.12, 0.86) 0.5 (0.11, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.025) 0.022 (0.016, 0.031) 0.022 (0.017, 0.031) 0.021 (0.015, 0.03)
+– graduation 0 240 282 424
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 74 55 44
n 56 (38, 70) 21 (5, 47) 18 (5, 45) 27 (13, 51)
n_unique 56 (38, 70) 21 (5, 47) 18 (5, 45) 27 (13, 51)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.44 (0.12, 0.81) 0.46 (0.14, 0.85) 0.99 (0.83, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.015, 0.038) 0.021 (0.014, 0.036) 0.01 (0.006, 0.014)
+-+ graduation 0 298 333 428
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 70 55 43
n 54 (33, 68) 19 (5, 44) 17 (4, 43) 26 (14, 50)
n_unique 54 (33, 68) 19 (5, 44) 17 (4, 43) 26 (14, 50)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.11, 0.81) 0.46 (0.11, 0.82) 0.98 (0.84, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.027) 0.022 (0.014, 0.036) 0.021 (0.014, 0.037) 0.01 (0.007, 0.015)
++- graduation 0 258 280 460
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 12 12 3
n 42 (28, 53) 16 (4, 35) 15 (4, 35) 20 (10, 38)
n_unique 42 (28, 53) 16 (4, 35) 15 (4, 35) 20 (10, 38)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.42 (0.14, 0.81) 0.46 (0.13, 0.82) 0.96 (0.71, 1)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.027) 0.022 (0.013, 0.042) 0.022 (0.013, 0.039) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016)
+++ graduation 0 317 335 464
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 12 11 3
n 40 (24, 53) 14 (4, 36) 12 (3, 37) 19 (9, 35)
n_unique 40 (24, 53) 14 (4, 36) 12 (3, 37) 19 (9, 35)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.43 (0.12, 0.84) 0.44 (0.13, 0.78) 0.95 (0.74, 1)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.028) 0.022 (0.013, 0.042) 0.023 (0.013, 0.044) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 10 12 84
time_stop 28 (15, 54) 28 (20, 54) 33 (12, 54)
n_trt 180 (86, 367) 213 (133, 453) 202 (83, 367)
n_control 328 (176, 563) 308 (207, 665) 376 (132, 634)
post_p 0.98 (0.95, 1) 0.95 (0.89, 0.98) 1 (0.95, 1)
order 2.5 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4)
TP53- count 18 33 95
time_stop 28 (17, 49) 33 (20, 55) 33 (17, 52)
n_trt 108 (62, 177) 139 (76, 230) 112 (61, 206)
n_control 176 (97, 308) 216 (110, 338) 201 (110, 333)
post_p 0.96 (0.9, 0.99) 0.97 (0.89, 0.99) 0.99 (0.97, 1)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4.8) 2 (1, 4)
TP53+ count 25 21 105
time_stop 34 (21, 55) 26 (17, 47) 34 (19, 56)
n_trt 103 (59, 161) 94 (67, 165) 112 (57, 182)
n_control 167 (98, 286) 134 (86, 200) 171 (95, 293)
post_p 0.96 (0.93, 0.99) 0.96 (0.91, 0.99) 0.99 (0.96, 1)
order 2 (1, 3) 1 (1, 3) 2 (1, 4)
DRD+ count 9 8 434
time_stop 42 (31, 55) 41 (30, 45) 34 (20, 51)
n_trt 71 (55, 102) 64 (51, 76) 96 (57, 144)
n_control 135 (110, 195) 128 (102, 149) 112 (65, 170)
post_p 0.99 (0.96, 0.99) 0.97 (0.95, 0.99) 1 (0.97, 1)
order 2 (1, 4.4) 2 (1.7, 3.3) 1 (1, 3)
TEfus+ count 17 16 93
time_stop 40 (21, 57) 38 (21, 48) 36 (19, 53)
n_trt 100 (55, 161) 98 (58, 168) 88 (53, 158)
n_control 188 (89, 241) 160 (92, 232) 151 (83, 244)
post_p 0.97 (0.91, 0.99) 0.96 (0.91, 0.99) 0.99 (0.96, 1)
order 2 (1, 3) 2 (1.5, 4.5) 2 (1, 4)
Futility:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 31 45 1
time_stop 29 (19, 52) 21 (8, 53) 15 (15, 15)
n_trt 164 (97, 255) 134 (55, 244) 117 (117, 117)
n_control 352 (193, 592) 255 (89, 560) 166 (166, 166)
post_p 0.04 (0.01, 0.19) 0.05 (0.01, 0.13) 0.08 (0.08, 0.08)
order 3 (1, 5) 1 (1, 5.2) 1 (1, 1)
TP53- count 166 173 12
time_stop 28 (17, 52) 32 (18, 52) 23 (15, 28)
n_trt 96 (53, 207) 93 (52, 185) 66 (53, 80)
n_control 180 (100, 352) 203 (113, 339) 145 (89, 176)
post_p 0.15 (0.04, 0.27) 0.17 (0.05, 0.26) 0.23 (0.1, 0.28)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4) 1 (1, 2)
TP53+ count 165 169 10
time_stop 33 (20, 52) 31 (18, 51) 20 (18, 33)
n_trt 79 (52, 151) 81 (54, 154) 56 (50, 74)
n_control 167 (102, 283) 153 (87, 277) 98 (84, 179)
post_p 0.16 (0.05, 0.27) 0.14 (0.04, 0.27) 0.21 (0.09, 0.26)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4) 1.5 (1, 3.1)
DRD+ count 84 97 1
time_stop 45 (32, 57) 44 (33, 55) 16 (16, 16)
n_trt 62 (50, 97) 58 (50, 89) 50 (50, 50)
n_control 146 (106, 200) 147 (104, 190) 47 (47, 47)
post_p 0.13 (0.04, 0.27) 0.16 (0.05, 0.27) 0.22 (0.22, 0.22)
order 3 (1, 4) 3 (1, 5) 1 (1, 1)
TEfus+ count 136 136 9
time_stop 35 (25, 55) 34 (23, 50) 24 (19, 30)
n_trt 68 (51, 125) 72 (51, 120) 59 (56, 69)
n_control 151 (95, 240) 145 (96, 223) 89 (73, 129)
post_p 0.14 (0.04, 0.26) 0.14 (0.03, 0.26) 0.17 (0.05, 0.27)
order 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 5) 1 (1, 3.2)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
time 28 (15, 54) 28 (15, 54) 28 (15, 54) 28 (15, 54) 28 (15, 54) 28 (15, 54) 28 (15, 54) 28 (15, 54)
n 58 (28, 112) 16 (7, 34) 31 (12, 69) 17 (12, 61) 8 (2, 17) 12 (3, 31) 6 (0, 20) 8 (5, 21)
post_p 0.65 (0.59, 0.86) 0.7 (0.56, 0.8) 0.8 (0.62, 0.94) 0.67 (0.56, 0.84) 0.64 (0.56, 0.91) 0.66 (0.59, 0.76) 0.6 (0.55, 0.94) 0.68 (0.55, 0.72)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.008, 0.022) 0.011 (0, 0.018) 0.011 (0.003, 0.019) 0.012 (0, 0.021) 0.005 (0, 0.014) 0.008 (0, 0.019) 0 (0, 0.015) 0 (0, 0.017)
Taxel_therapies count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
time 28 (20, 54) 28 (20, 54) 28 (20, 54) 28 (20, 54) 28 (20, 54) 28 (20, 54) 28 (20, 54) 28 (20, 54)
n 71 (31, 136) 26 (11, 44) 36 (25, 97) 36 (20, 65) 14 (7, 31) 12 (4, 28) 6 (4, 24) 6 (5, 15)
post_p 0.67 (0.56, 0.8) 0.69 (0.61, 0.83) 0.7 (0.56, 0.83) 0.67 (0.57, 0.92) 0.67 (0.6, 0.84) 0.72 (0.58, 0.84) 0.62 (0.56, 0.82) 0.6 (0.56, 0.63)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.01, 0.021) 0.015 (0.009, 0.017) 0.017 (0.009, 0.021) 0.017 (0.008, 0.021) 0 (0, 0.018) 0.007 (0, 0.013) 0.005 (0, 0.018) 0 (0, 0.014)
Niraparib count 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84
time 33 (12, 54) 33 (12, 54) 33 (12, 54) 33 (12, 54) 33 (12, 54) 33 (12, 54) 33 (12, 54) 33 (12, 54)
n 46 (13, 137) 12 (5, 32) 31 (9, 81) 25 (8, 54) 19 (12, 36) 20 (10, 39) 14 (7, 31) 15 (8, 27)
post_p 0.67 (0.58, 0.88) 0.65 (0.56, 0.8) 0.65 (0.57, 0.88) 0.66 (0.56, 0.87) 0.81 (0.57, 0.99) 0.87 (0.59, 0.99) 0.79 (0.59, 0.96) 0.83 (0.58, 0.98)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.015 (0, 0.02) 0.011 (0, 0.02) 0.013 (0, 0.021) 0.013 (0, 0.02) 0.008 (0, 0.015) 0.008 (0, 0.014) 0.008 (0, 0.014) 0.006 (0, 0.014)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 18 18 18 18
time 28 (17, 49) 28 (17, 49) 28 (17, 49) 28 (17, 49)
n 66 (40, 120) 18 (9, 38) 11 (3, 26) 10 (5, 20)
post_p 0.81 (0.72, 0.87) 0.73 (0.71, 0.88) 0.77 (0.62, 0.91) 0.72 (0.62, 0.85)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.008, 0.02) 0.01 (0, 0.018) 0.005 (0, 0.014) 0.003 (0, 0.017)
Taxel_therapies count 33 33 33 33
time 33 (20, 55) 33 (20, 55) 33 (20, 55) 33 (20, 55)
n 84 (45, 134) 26 (9, 43) 16 (6, 34) 12 (5, 28)
post_p 0.81 (0.71, 0.94) 0.77 (0.7, 0.9) 0.75 (0.62, 0.84) 0.74 (0.64, 0.86)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.01, 0.02) 0.014 (0.007, 0.018) 0.008 (0, 0.017) 0.009 (0, 0.016)
Niraparib count 95 95 95 95
time 33 (17, 52) 33 (17, 52) 33 (17, 52) 33 (17, 52)
n 56 (22, 116) 15 (6, 34) 21 (12, 36) 22 (11, 37)
post_p 0.76 (0.71, 0.94) 0.73 (0.62, 0.83) 0.85 (0.72, 0.98) 0.87 (0.72, 0.99)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.013 (0.005, 0.018) 0.009 (0, 0.018) 0.008 (0, 0.014) 0.007 (0, 0.013)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 25 25 25 25
time 34 (21, 55) 34 (21, 55) 34 (21, 55) 34 (21, 55)
n 47 (23, 93) 29 (17, 54) 10 (4, 27) 10 (4, 19)
post_p 0.81 (0.71, 0.94) 0.78 (0.72, 0.88) 0.74 (0.61, 0.88) 0.71 (0.63, 0.84)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.008, 0.019) 0.014 (0.005, 0.018) 0.007 (0, 0.016) 0.004 (0, 0.015)
Taxel_therapies count 21 21 21 21
time 26 (17, 47) 26 (17, 47) 26 (17, 47) 26 (17, 47)
n 49 (30, 83) 31 (20, 67) 6 (4, 21) 8 (4, 18)
post_p 0.82 (0.73, 0.91) 0.76 (0.72, 0.9) 0.69 (0.62, 0.81) 0.66 (0.61, 0.83)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.008, 0.019) 0.014 (0.002, 0.02) 0 (0, 0.015) 0.003 (0, 0.018)
Niraparib count 105 105 105 105
time 34 (19, 56) 34 (19, 56) 34 (19, 56) 34 (19, 56)
n 38 (17, 96) 26 (13, 63) 18 (9, 32) 17 (9, 27)
post_p 0.76 (0.71, 0.91) 0.76 (0.7, 0.88) 0.84 (0.71, 0.98) 0.84 (0.7, 0.97)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.014 (0, 0.018) 0.013 (0, 0.018) 0.007 (0, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.014)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 9 9 9 9
time 42 (31, 55) 42 (31, 55) 42 (31, 55) 42 (31, 55)
n 16 (13, 26) 26 (11, 36) 14 (8, 26) 20 (7, 29)
post_p 0.77 (0.72, 0.91) 0.74 (0.7, 0.87) 0.76 (0.63, 0.84) 0.82 (0.73, 0.9)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.01 (0.004, 0.016) 0.014 (0.008, 0.017) 0.011 (0, 0.016) 0.01 (0.005, 0.014)
Taxel_therapies count 8 8 8 8
time 41 (30, 45) 41 (30, 45) 41 (30, 45) 41 (30, 45)
n 17 (10, 27) 16 (8, 25) 18 (6, 27) 11 (7, 22)
post_p 0.74 (0.68, 0.88) 0.74 (0.71, 0.88) 0.79 (0.64, 0.89) 0.76 (0.71, 0.85)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.011 (0, 0.014) 0.011 (0, 0.013) 0.011 (0.008, 0.013) 0.009 (0.003, 0.013)
Niraparib count 434 434 434 434
time 34 (20, 51) 34 (20, 51) 34 (20, 51) 34 (20, 51)
n 26 (14, 48) 26 (15, 46) 20 (10, 35) 19 (10, 33)
post_p 0.86 (0.71, 0.99) 0.84 (0.72, 0.99) 0.82 (0.71, 0.97) 0.81 (0.7, 0.97)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.008 (0.001, 0.013) 0.008 (0.002, 0.014) 0.007 (0, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.015)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 17 17 17 17
time 40 (21, 57) 40 (21, 57) 40 (21, 57) 40 (21, 57)
n 23 (10, 54) 50 (22, 74) 10 (5, 32) 15 (5, 32)
post_p 0.74 (0.68, 0.94) 0.79 (0.72, 0.9) 0.71 (0.61, 0.82) 0.74 (0.62, 0.92)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.004, 0.019) 0.014 (0.004, 0.019) 0.01 (0, 0.017) 0.011 (0, 0.017)
Taxel_therapies count 16 16 16 16
time 38 (21, 48) 38 (21, 48) 38 (21, 48) 38 (21, 48)
n 25 (9, 40) 44 (29, 68) 18 (6, 32) 8 (4, 33)
post_p 0.77 (0.69, 0.9) 0.79 (0.72, 0.89) 0.76 (0.66, 0.86) 0.7 (0.61, 0.84)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.006, 0.02) 0.014 (0.012, 0.018) 0.007 (0, 0.014) 0.008 (0, 0.015)
Niraparib count 93 93 93 93
time 36 (19, 53) 36 (19, 53) 36 (19, 53) 36 (19, 53)
n 18 (7, 40) 28 (10, 67) 23 (15, 41) 17 (9, 28)
post_p 0.74 (0.64, 0.88) 0.75 (0.71, 0.9) 0.89 (0.72, 1) 0.88 (0.73, 0.98)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.011 (0, 0.019) 0.013 (0.005, 0.019) 0.007 (0.003, 0.013) 0.006 (0, 0.013)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
time 29 (19, 52) 29 (19, 52) 29 (19, 52) 29 (19, 52) 29 (19, 52) 29 (19, 52) 29 (19, 52) 29 (19, 52)
n 49 (25, 122) 16 (7, 39) 26 (9, 54) 21 (7, 44) 6 (3, 18) 8 (3, 21) 6 (1, 14) 6 (2, 15)
post_p 0.35 (0.05, 0.46) 0.35 (0.16, 0.47) 0.27 (0.08, 0.46) 0.34 (0.16, 0.48) 0.28 (0.04, 0.45) 0.34 (0.14, 0.44) 0.36 (0.17, 0.47) 0.38 (0.22, 0.49)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.018, 0.028) 0.025 (0.017, 0.037) 0.025 (0.017, 0.032) 0.022 (0.018, 0.04) 0.033 (0.018, 0.054) 0.024 (0.015, 0.049) 0.024 (0.017, 0.176) 0.024 (0.005, 0.065)
Taxel_therapies count 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
time 21 (8, 53) 21 (8, 53) 21 (8, 53) 21 (8, 53) 21 (8, 53) 21 (8, 53) 21 (8, 53) 21 (8, 53)
n 25 (12, 64) 10 (7, 28) 22 (13, 83) 19 (9, 52) 6 (1, 17) 5 (0, 17) 4 (1, 17) 7 (0, 17)
post_p 0.3 (0.09, 0.46) 0.33 (0.2, 0.48) 0.3 (0.14, 0.45) 0.3 (0.1, 0.47) 0.37 (0.18, 0.49) 0.41 (0.18, 0.49) 0.36 (0.22, 0.47) 0.35 (0.12, 0.48)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.014, 0.036) 0.024 (0.009, 0.044) 0.025 (0.018, 0.037) 0.024 (0.017, 0.048) 0.025 (0, 0.074) 0.02 (0, 0.037) 0.027 (0, 0.067) 0.023 (0, 0.065)
Niraparib count 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
time 15 (15, 15) 15 (15, 15) 15 (15, 15) 15 (15, 15) 15 (15, 15) 15 (15, 15) 15 (15, 15) 15 (15, 15)
n 37 (37, 37) 1 (1, 1) 14 (14, 14) 19 (19, 19) 13 (13, 13) 10 (10, 10) 14 (14, 14) 9 (9, 9)
post_p 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.26 (0.26, 0.26) 0.31 (0.31, 0.31) 0.45 (0.45, 0.45) 0.4 (0.4, 0.4) 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.44 (0.44, 0.44)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.028 (0.028, 0.028) 0 (0, 0) 0.023 (0.023, 0.023) 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) 0 (0, 0) 0.016 (0.016, 0.016) 0.011 (0.011, 0.011)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 166 166 166 166
time 28 (17, 52) 28 (17, 52) 28 (17, 52) 28 (17, 52)
n 52 (25, 128) 15 (6, 40) 10 (3, 31) 10 (3, 28)
post_p 0.32 (0.08, 0.46) 0.39 (0.18, 0.48) 0.34 (0.12, 0.48) 0.34 (0.14, 0.48)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.029) 0.023 (0.015, 0.042) 0.023 (0.014, 0.051) 0.023 (0.013, 0.046)
Taxel_therapies count 173 173 173 173
time 32 (18, 52) 32 (18, 52) 32 (18, 52) 32 (18, 52)
n 47 (22, 113) 18 (9, 38) 10 (4, 28) 10 (3, 27)
post_p 0.33 (0.11, 0.47) 0.38 (0.15, 0.47) 0.35 (0.16, 0.48) 0.37 (0.16, 0.47)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.028) 0.023 (0.015, 0.037) 0.023 (0.014, 0.046) 0.023 (0.013, 0.046)
Niraparib count 12 12 12 12
time 23 (15, 28) 23 (15, 28) 23 (15, 28) 23 (15, 28)
n 25 (8, 37) 10 (2, 13) 12 (8, 22) 18 (10, 25)
post_p 0.19 (0.1, 0.34) 0.37 (0.17, 0.49) 0.43 (0.28, 0.46) 0.46 (0.37, 0.5)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.028 (0.02, 0.047) 0.022 (0.011, 0.052) 0.014 (0.01, 0.028) 0.012 (0.001, 0.017)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 165 165 165 165
time 33 (20, 52) 33 (20, 52) 33 (20, 52) 33 (20, 52)
n 34 (15, 76) 25 (10, 58) 9 (3, 23) 9 (3, 23)
post_p 0.32 (0.1, 0.48) 0.34 (0.12, 0.46) 0.37 (0.14, 0.48) 0.36 (0.16, 0.47)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.016, 0.032) 0.022 (0.016, 0.038) 0.023 (0.014, 0.046) 0.024 (0.013, 0.046)
Taxel_therapies count 169 169 169 169
time 31 (18, 51) 31 (18, 51) 31 (18, 51) 31 (18, 51)
n 35 (18, 73) 26 (13, 52) 7 (3, 19) 7 (2, 19)
post_p 0.35 (0.1, 0.47) 0.33 (0.11, 0.46) 0.35 (0.18, 0.48) 0.36 (0.16, 0.48)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.016, 0.032) 0.022 (0.016, 0.034) 0.025 (0.013, 0.059) 0.023 (0.012, 0.052)
Niraparib count 10 10 10 10
time 20 (18, 33) 20 (18, 33) 20 (18, 33) 20 (18, 33)
n 15 (10, 28) 18 (10, 31) 12 (8, 15) 14 (9, 15)
post_p 0.34 (0.15, 0.46) 0.32 (0.2, 0.38) 0.41 (0.33, 0.49) 0.43 (0.34, 0.46)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.033) 0.022 (0.014, 0.03) 0.017 (0.008, 0.021) 0.018 (0.011, 0.027)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 84 84 84 84
time 45 (32, 57) 45 (32, 57) 45 (32, 57) 45 (32, 57)
n 18 (7, 36) 19 (7, 34) 13 (6, 30) 10 (3, 26)
post_p 0.32 (0.1, 0.47) 0.32 (0.1, 0.47) 0.33 (0.1, 0.47) 0.29 (0.1, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.035) 0.024 (0.017, 0.046) 0.025 (0.017, 0.038) 0.028 (0.017, 0.058)
Taxel_therapies count 97 97 97 97
time 44 (33, 55) 44 (33, 55) 44 (33, 55) 44 (33, 55)
n 18 (6, 30) 17 (6, 31) 14 (5, 27) 11 (4, 25)
post_p 0.31 (0.09, 0.48) 0.35 (0.12, 0.48) 0.37 (0.13, 0.47) 0.3 (0.12, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.024 (0.016, 0.046) 0.024 (0.016, 0.042) 0.023 (0.015, 0.042) 0.027 (0.017, 0.053)
Niraparib count 1 1 1 1
time 16 (16, 16) 16 (16, 16) 16 (16, 16) 16 (16, 16)
n 21 (21, 21) 10 (10, 10) 11 (11, 11) 8 (8, 8)
post_p 0.42 (0.42, 0.42) 0.42 (0.42, 0.42) 0.44 (0.44, 0.44) 0.45 (0.45, 0.45)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.021, 0.021) 0.012 (0.012, 0.012) 0.009 (0.009, 0.009) 0.015 (0.015, 0.015)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 136 136 136 136
time 35 (25, 55) 35 (25, 55) 35 (25, 55) 35 (25, 55)
n 18 (7, 40) 28 (12, 60) 13 (4, 28) 9 (4, 23)
post_p 0.34 (0.14, 0.48) 0.36 (0.11, 0.47) 0.33 (0.14, 0.47) 0.35 (0.11, 0.48)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.024 (0.016, 0.039) 0.023 (0.016, 0.033) 0.022 (0.015, 0.041) 0.025 (0.014, 0.051)
Taxel_therapies count 136 136 136 136
time 34 (23, 50) 34 (23, 50) 34 (23, 50) 34 (23, 50)
n 20 (9, 39) 30 (16, 57) 10 (4, 25) 8 (3, 20)
post_p 0.38 (0.1, 0.48) 0.33 (0.11, 0.46) 0.35 (0.14, 0.48) 0.35 (0.14, 0.48)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.015, 0.039) 0.023 (0.016, 0.032) 0.023 (0.015, 0.051) 0.025 (0.015, 0.05)
Niraparib count 9 9 9 9
time 24 (19, 30) 24 (19, 30) 24 (19, 30) 24 (19, 30)
n 9 (7, 22) 20 (8, 29) 21 (8, 28) 10 (7, 16)
post_p 0.43 (0.12, 0.48) 0.25 (0.06, 0.37) 0.4 (0.31, 0.46) 0.4 (0.27, 0.47)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.019 (0.016, 0.045) 0.025 (0.015, 0.048) 0.016 (0.008, 0.035) 0.02 (0.009, 0.034)